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2024年, 外贸到了一个新节点。自改开后，进出口总额占GDP比重的曲线图如一个倒V型。
以2001年入世贸为始，2004年达最高点69.8%，随后呈下降趋势，最低点在2020年31.8%。2016年开始，均40%以下的微起伏状态。从近二十年的外贸占比发展图中，可得出什么？至少有2点：
- 外贸发展的增量没有了，呈现出存量、减量竞争的发展走向。
- 国家的发展方向从出口导向型，必然要转到以内需为主上来。
时代大势下，我们只能顺势而为，任何逆着走的结果，注定失败。回看过去，为方向、决策提供正确战略依据。这种变化的驱动力是什么？先来看下，国际公认GDP合理分配比例是：个人消费＞65%，行政消费＜10%，投资＜10%，贸易顺差额 小于15 % ; 而长时间以来，我们的情况是：个人消费< 40%，行政消费 >14%，投资 > 40%
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scroll_motion_devices=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” last=”true” border_position=”all” first=”true”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” hue=”” saturation=”” lightness=”” alpha=”” content_alignment_medium=”” content_alignment_small=”” content_alignment=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” margin_top=”” margin_right=”” margin_bottom=”” margin_left=”” fusion_font_family_text_font=”” fusion_font_variant_text_font=”” font_size=”” line_height=”” letter_spacing=”” text_transform=”” text_color=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” logics=””]一、情况起了变化，出现未有之新现象
外贸出口这头拉了近二十年多年老马, 现在是真有点拉不动了。 2016年左右开始，陆陆续续出现拉了这些新现象。
有中国公司，在越南等东南亚国家设厂，以规避成本上升，关税和贸易壁垒等；出现集装箱司机开始抱怨，货量变少了，这个月没拉几趟车，赚不到钱；疫情这几年，海运市场狂飙，导致了脉冲式的行情，留下一地鸡毛；开发新客户、接新单难度明显加大，老客户也随时有暴雷的风险；传统产品的订单呈现散、小、碎特点，有工厂开始反应，无法维持生产线运转的局面；美国自2018年开征的贸易战加征关税、壁垒，对本国产业链的保护和对中国产品限制。
大概也就是在2015、2016年左右，中国的跨境电商迎来爆发式增长，同时海外仓这个概念也被正式广泛使用；某APP上出现了许多教人做外贸各路老师们，潜台词“跟我做，你才能挣到大钱”。…… 有段子说，当前中国的产能已经大到什么程度？夸张地说，火星人来地球采购一年的量，中国一个国家1个月搞定。好日子为什么不能持续下去，外部环境、内部因素又有哪些？
二、科技产业康波周期、中国经济发展阶段、地缘政治冲突 ~ 大环境
未有之变局就这么发生了，那些缓慢而长期的规律变化，是真正的大犀牛，没有任何力量可以短期改变。[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ layout=”1_1″ align_self=”auto” content_layout=”column” align_content=”flex-start” valign_content=”flex-start” content_wrap=”wrap” spacing=”” center_content=”no” column_tag=”div” link=”” target=”_self” link_description=”” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” sticky_display=”normal,sticky” class=”” id=”” background_image_id_medium=”” background_image_id_small=”” background_image_id=”” type_medium=”” type_small=”” flex_grow_medium=”” flex_grow_small=”” flex_grow=”” flex_shrink_medium=”” flex_shrink_small=”” flex_shrink=”” order_medium=”0″ order_small=”0″ spacing_left_medium=”” spacing_right_medium=”” spacing_left_small=”” spacing_right_small=”” spacing_left=”” spacing_right=”” margin_top_medium=”” margin_bottom_medium=”” margin_top_small=”” margin_bottom_small=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” padding_top_medium=”” 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1. 此轮康波周期已到尾期，而新一轮的科技和产业革命还未接上。
坏消息是我们目前处于萧条期，好消息是我们就要走出萧条期进入复苏，时间点大概最早在2027年，最晚2030年。2018年贸易战，征关税这些问题的答案，从整个经济发展规律中，也许能找到一个合理的解答。而能得到的教训经验，就是尊重市场规律，顺势而为。过度开发的恶果，必然是市场失衡，然后是冬寒春生，规律使之重归平衡。
2. 中国改开以来自身的发展势能也见底了，必须要进行转型升级。
人口红利的消失，城镇化的末期，少子化、老龄化程度的加深，巨大的阶层贫富差距，中长期 债务的到期偿还，基建等投资效益的边际递减等。这都说明旧有发展模式，低社会保障、低劳动收入，低消费支出、高出口、高投资，如今已很难再拉动中 国这个世界老二经济体。如没有新的发展动能，那么将可预见地进入超低速增长。此种模式另一个词叫“中等收入陷阱”。
3. 全球地缘政治冲突加剧趋势，在国家安全考量下，全球化2.0版本。
全球发展的不平衡，是导致了冲突加剧的根源。俄乌冲突、中东冲突、南亚冲突、非洲地区 冲突等等。自疫情以后，这种发展特点日渐明显，区域性经济合作加强，有共同价值观小伙伴合作、结盟，同时以供应链安全为考量的成了全球化重点。因 而，我们将见到产业格局的再一次转变。一个指标是中国的外资自1998年首次出现负值。时髦的名称叫“Decoupling”。
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三、市场红利走到末期、不可控事件、经营成本不断增长 ~ 小环境
目前中国外贸额占到世界比重已近16%。宏观形势无不时刻影响着我们，而微观上的感受是具体而又实际的。
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1. 市场犀牛的压价，老客户难守成，新客户难开发。
最近十年以来，一个明显的感受是产品的利润率在不断地下降，老客户随着市场变化的压力，传导到供应链上游。直观压力给出的，就是老客户订单不仅利润薄、账期长，同时大增拖欠、破产的风险；开发新市场、新客户的难度，犹如从虎口夺食，对产品、价格、质量、服务、付款条件等提出更高的要求。如还依照老思路，联系开发100个新客户，看看三个月后，能下单比例有多少？
2. 黑天鹅事件一个接一个，原来出口节奏被打乱。
汇率在1-7.3来回波动，一个不小心变亏本；各国贸易政策的变更，如普惠制关税取消，持续对一部分产品退税的取消、调降，意味着对这些企业是毁灭性打击。疫情三年中，海运市场的非正常发展，扭曲了市场供需关系；地缘冲突爆发，导致航线改道，航程加长、费用增加；对中国产品的加征关税，贸易保护主义显著的抬头；为应对气候变化，各国出台了对进口产品的新环保标准。
3. 渐增的经营成本如白蚁，蚕食企业发展动力。
算上租金、薪酬、五险一金、营销、办公、水电，会计服务等各种费用，至少可以占到了24%水平。且随着逐年增加的缴费基数，这个比例只会越来越大。当外部环境不好的时候，你猜或逻辑推演一下，内部有可能发生什么？…… （此处省略万字）。近几年流行词“降本增效”除了朋友间的玩笑词外，背后是无奈的现实，短期来看不降本，就得面对死局。现在这房子里除了业主，灰犀牛、黑天鹅、白蚂蚁都齐聚了，这可咋办？
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四、破局思路和变革方向
现在回头看，那些低垂的果实都被摘走，剩下的得要靠真本事去摘了。转变思路，结硬寨、打呆仗。
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animation_direction=”left” animation_color=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_delay=”0″ animation_offset=”” logics=””]1. 风险控制是核心。
为了分散风险，绝不能形成依赖单一的市场、客户、供应链、合作商的局面，警戒红线为30%。不能投出口保险的订单，坚决不做。事先做好背调，出险后的措施，整个流程的规范化，可防范，可溯性，把损失减少最低。除了控制风险、降本增效，要考虑全球的思路和布局。
2. 性价比是先有好产品。
贴近市场，满足客户的需求，利用外包资源，重新设计、包装产品。拥抱AI等新工具，更好地获取市场动态、分析市场数据、处理客户的需求，提高整个流程的工作效率。依靠低价是赢不了竞争的，只会把自己路越走越窄。先要有一个好产品，再配上合理的价格，才能讲Cost Performance。
3. 从销售到营销思维。
前二十年，与其说是你的本事大，不如说是你赶上了好时候, 靠得是运气。现在应该是从系统运作上，来提高成功的概率，是一个可验证、可重复、可叠加的模式。可分为线下和线上，线下如传统展会、地推，线上如独立站、内容营销、社媒平台等。大体上网络营销的比例要占到70%以上。
当贸易停止，战争就将开始。最后以曾国藩的一句话为自勉：久利之事勿为，众争之地勿往。[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]